Peter, a combination of the recent run-up in price and your inquiry into INPR and the ASP market has got me thinking (and doing a little snooping). I have two observations:
1. The ASP market is expected to grow rapidly. Companies seem to be interested in the idea of outsourcing a lot of the transaction functions to the "experts" instead of having their own internal gurus. There is flexibility in the pricing, fixed, usage or a combination of both. INPR has a good core of resources for this (cash, tools and personnel) and if executed right could mean a decent share of the total revenue in E-commerce.
2. With everyone giving away their software, where does that leave INPR and their core business? McNealy was ranting just recently about how he's giving away Java (link at the end of my message). There is certainly some room for value added software development tools and good support for the products (and universal support for platforms, Unix flavors, M$, palm/appliance, etc). But to what extent will developers be willing to pony up for this added value when they can get an alternative for free? To some extent this is already happening with GNU/GCC. Are we observing the beginning of the end?
Much of this recent price appreciation seems to be based on INPR support for Linux. It seems the Linux initiative will have less impact on future revenues than the potential in the ASP market. So where do we go from here?
It seems to me, INPR rides the tools as long as it can and bets big-time on the ASP market. With the Linux frenzy, it might be a good idea to somehow spin off the tools and use the cash to invest in the ASP. Seeing the premium there is on a nearly free OS, there just might be a premium for a nearly free tool set. Then Borland can charge for services and other value added support. The big question here is: Are developers ready to depend on open source tools, or will enough choose to pay a premium for "X"Builder products?
Now I've got to go think about that one..
Dennis
Sun & McNealy link:
infoworld.com |
