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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 170.58

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (53078)	12/8/1999 4:49:00 AM
From: w molloy	Read Replies (3) of 152472

Hi Mq Digital cellular (GSM) was being touted in '89 and roll out forecasted by '92. It wasn't until '97 UK had a decent network and 'phones were being pushed by the high street chain stores. Its taken 'till this year for the same mass marketing to start in Italy, Portugal etc. My point is that the forcasts are for the most part 'spin' reflecting what the manufacturers and the network providers wish to happen, not what will happen. The GSM roll out was 5 years behind the forecasts. There was a similar trend with CDMA. I see the same thing with data. GPRS 'phones wont be available in the leading European markets until autumn 2000 at the earliest. Who knows when EDGE will be available. I'm not convinced that wireless web browsing will be cellular based either. It's simply too expensive. 'engineer' calculates that 1 2.4Mbps HDR channel consumes as much bandwidth as 700 VOX users. I can't see the network operators buying into that. There are better ways to go wireless, for example, DSL and Bluetooth. I, for one, prefer to surf in the relative comfort of my office; not at the top of a mountain. My 10 year time frame was an estimate of how long before one saw substantial CDMA type coverage in established GSM markets. I think you are correct with your 5 year timeframe for data. I'll qualify that that saying that cellular data (i.e. GSM/CDMA) rates will be restricted to around 56kbps, which will give tolerable web browsing capability, when coupled to WAP or web clipping technology. You and me will be zipping around the web at 2Mbps via something else. w.

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