Hi John:
Thank you for sharing this additional information. Looks like flash memory pricing could be a major wildcard as both you and Bill point out.
My $2 billion prediction is very rough, I'll be the first to admit, but it seems to me that production capacity at Austin alone could treble with the shift of the MPU division to Dresden. Not wanting to beat a dead horse, but if a trebling in production capacity is at all reasonable, (and I don't know it to be so, but Niles 70% qtr to qtr production growth comment would support this notion), then a doubling in production revenues does not, to me, seem an absurd possible outcome, if prices remain, on average, stable.
I'm not stuck on the $2 billion. It's just the number I'm using until a rationale that I can understand for using some other number (higher or lower)is presented.
What I am stuck on is my perception of the enormous present value of the potential future income stream deriving from the Athlon! If that 1.2 million number stands up, there is little doubt that 99Q4 revenues will exceed $900 million and if ASP for those 1.2 million Athlon is $300, there is more than an outside chance that AMD will break the $1 billion barrier in 99Q4. (i.e incremental revenues in 99Q4 from Athlons alone would be $300 million which when added to $672 99Q3 earnings gets us to $972 million. Net incremental revenues from non-Athlon processors and flash memory might just get AMD there).
At the very least, a nice thought if you are bullish on AMD! |
