gpowell,
I can think of a number of hypothetical answers to your questions in the uplinked message. Each answer would depend on the outcomes of several different, yet related, issues.
For example, I could see a benefit to ATHM if the floodgates were to open up, and congestion became intolerable for them on the old platforms. This is a very likely scenario, btw.
Or, in a more Machiavellian scenario, if new pricing parity guidelines were instituted to allow equitable treatment to the newcomers (AOL, MSPG, etc.), and ATHM wanted safe haven, elsewhere. This would free up the MSOs to jack up their prices. The MSOs would obviously benefit from the latter, as well. In this scenario, ATHM would be convinced to keep a weighted percentage of their subscribers on the old systems, where impact was least, in order to avoid the obvious. But they would seek newer platform offerings in the remaining strategic locales.
Worst case, ATHM might be averse to the new congestion problems, AND at the same time, they may want to seek more efficient carriage via some new media-independent delivery scheme, allowing them to take advantage of 3G Wireless, other Fiber to the x arrangements, and DSL, where they exist.
Of course, these changes (hypothetical or otherwise) could not be effected overnight, and would move at glacial crawl. And to reiterate, these are only hypothetical replies to your hypothetical query.
Regards, Frank |
