<most WWeb information that people need on their wireless devices can be comfortably obtained at 14kbps. ..... Given the well publicized service problems of mobile operators, including to a lesser extend CDMA ones, I don't see HDR-like data speeds becoming mainstream any time soon, say, in the next 4 years.>
Kyros, I really can't believe you are serious. Maybe your definition of need is different from mine. In my definition of need, if a customer is prepared to pay for it, then they need it. In the wired world, people are NOT satisfied with anything less than ADSL one node from the exchange and that is way too slow. They want high speed fibre! They can't all afford high speed fibre yet.
In the WWeb they will want to go even faster than in the wired world because they are on the move, not sitting comfy in their armchair. At home or in an office they can go get a pot of tea while the data downloads. In mobile, they are busy doing something, being somewhere and trying to make stuff happen. Time is of the essence when mobile. Data rates need to be FAST FAST FAST. Irwin Jacobs has said that speed is the key. He knows what's up.
14kbps is a cruel joke the computer world has played on humanity for too long. We need 2 megabits per second. Later, we will need 100 times that speed so we can watch 3D stuff on the fly but that will be a while yet. In the meantime, HDR, while hopelessly slow, is about all we can economically justify until cdma2000 is ready to rumble.
Korea Telecom Freetel, Microsoft, Ericsson, Cisco, Intel, and everyone who is remotely associated with electrons and photons are going hell for leather to get into the WWeb world. They know that WWeb is going to be big time. Microsoft nearly missed the internet [that anachronistic forebear of the WWeb] and belatedly realized that there was something else. Something so important that they changed their decades old vision statement from "A computer in every home and on every desk" or whatever it was, to "Paradigm Shift Happens". Or as George Gilder puts it, "Major Paradigm Shift Happens".
Microsoft and most other companies were asleep at the helm. They could have bought Qualcomm for $25 a share a year ago [in November99 share values]. Now they have to pay nearly 20x as much! Shows how little they realized what was going on.
Now there is a $$multitrillion scramble to get into the WWeb and build It [TM].
Thinking 14kbps is enough is like thinking a nematode worm was the end stage of DNA evolution. No it wasn't! Nervous systems developed and now we have our wonderful, high-powered, intelligent brains cruising the planet, fighting religious wars, forgetting names, phone numbers, addresses and being confused about most things. The next stage of evolution, CDNA is going to be even more fun than CDMA.
It [TM] and CDNA [TM], together the world.
Convinced?
Mqurice
PS: It [TM] = the sentient being which the WWeb will become in about 20 or 30 years. It will be the most important 'country'. It will have more patriotic devotees than America. It's will will be done.
CDNA [TM] = cyber DNA, which is human and other DNA tailor-made into forms which people select. Great for no more cystic fibrosis and stuff, but also excellent for cerebral cortex functionality and all sorts of things. Big hearts for runners with tough pipework. Stuff like that.
CDNA will be infinitely more valuable than CDMA. |
