Well . . . what an interesting afternoon. I thought nothing could top the last certification announcement, which was nothing less than shocking. I, as everyone else here, can only speculate at this point in time.
This afternoon's precipitous drop is in obvious response to either some "information" or speculation regarding tomorrow's anticipated certification announcement. IMHO, there are two principal outcomes to explain this precipitous drop: (1)all CMTO modems in-fact failed; or (2) given the significant runnup prior to any news on the certification, someone with obvious influence on the market decided to take his $$$ off the table & avoid the risk of certification failure, with ample time to jump back in upon confirmation of positive news.
IMHO, given the submittal of at least one OEM that has already been certified, logic would dictate that the first outcome is unlikely. It is possible, however, that the "news" of failure meant only CMTO's proprietary DOXport modems, including the so-called advanced one, in which case a selloff is unwarranted, but certainly not of the magnitude & quickness we saw today.
OTOH, the selloff could be due to some $$$ being unloaded to avoid the risk of another failure. The intent here would be to do so with sufficient momentum so as to trigger sell programs & create the frenzy that took place, to create the biggest bang for the "short" buck so to speak. This strategy would be done possibly with the expectation to re-establish a position at a lower basis prior to the announcement of any certification.
The foregoing hypothesis is based upon the belief that some $$$ has missed the boat on the recent pre-certification runnup from roughly 12 to 27, which is quite a runnup on NO NEWS, but merely expectation. If one were able to orchestrate this kind of selloff, one could "set the clock back" so to speak to establish long term position at a more desirable cost basis.
The bottom line of all this I dunno. Right now, no one here knows. But I find it highly improbable that ALL CMTO's modems "failed" as rumor would have it. The only credible rumor would be that all but the OEM modem failed, & even that would be a bit incredulous.
Notwithstanding, I'm sure there will be a lot of BETTING before & at tomorrow's open.
JMO. |
