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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2281)	12/8/1999 11:12:00 PM
From: Lee	of 3536

Re: Japan Henry, Short term I think the government will do its best to maintain forward momentum. Fortunately, Japan does have world beating companies such as Toyota, Sony, and too many to mention. Couple this with a reemerging Asia and I believe growth can continue, although slower and with a negative quarter tossed in to keep it interesting. Medium to long term I would place Japan in the middle 20%. Of course there is the well-known demographic situation. I am equally concerned about invigorating productive private investment. The ROW has been much slower at adapting and advancing technology infrastructures and use. On the plus side catching up can trigger just the increasing investment dollars needed to help lift the economy. However, I see the rest of Asia as a more attractive investment heaven and continuing the trend of siphoning export to Europe and US from Japan. Longer term I am also concerned about the effect of the Internet on world trade. The US has a huge lead in this space that can be leverage to advance our trade and export our culture. At the moment such a small percentage of the world is online, and mostly those predisposed to a global outlook. As this changes and more of the world economy flows through the pipes, I can see a backlash that helps lock in the regional trade zones. I would feel more comfortable that this not be a concern if the US would maintain our leadership as a free trader and promote thereof. Yet our recent history is poor leadership in this area. This is also a negative trend re Japan's outlook. In sum, I see continued improvement but not the source for growth in consumption and private investment that might lead one to say, “now Japan is cooking with gas.” Cheers, Lee

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