I'd rather be long QQQ than short. My opinion being that most individual investors are putting any excess monies into internet and or telecom related stocks which I assume are well represented in the index. (Aside: I'm not familiar with the exact make-up or weighing of the stocks within QQQ or how frequently adds to, or subtracts from, are made by the keeper.) Maybe people are putting all their available monies into these stocks. And, one way or another, demanding and forcing mutual fund managers to shift funds to these areas too. As individual stocks falter within the index, the slack will be taken up by the winners who are able to hold investors' fancy - either by their promise of technology, their stock market performance, or the deals and alliances they undertake. Consequently, the QQQ average will rise.
The counterforce will come as supply of new issues continues to increase and so diverts investors attention away from the stocks within QQQ. For example, today's hot draw: Linux related stocks.
The losers will be conventional stocks. These will continue to drift lower. We will be seeing more buyouts and buybacks by these companies. Which will come from individuals and boards of directors who own the stocks putting pressure on co. management to improve performance. But not so much pressure on these stocks by other individuals who could buy the stocks, because these outsiders view the 'bargains', if they even are aware of the companies, as distasteful and totally unthinkable for their investment dollars, regardless of price or value.
That's my speculative generalization anyway. |
