JQP - re: <good news about EVER. It is no longer the priciest stock I follow...>
I'm nibbling away at EVER - its in my longtermer drawer &
it should be in yours as well ! It should be a 50%+ trader as well from here - simply a matter of time; EVER "aint going no where."
I'll keep adding - just small bits as its settles here. This is one of the few stocks I view as a 5 year hold. Their 5 year growth prospects are near the top of anyone in the E&P sector. This is a legitimate - "premiere class" company.
"Q" - I don't think you really understand what EVER is about per your comments below(VBG).
EVER is not in the same tier as TMR,RRC, MEXP et al.
This is a world class CBM (coal bed methane) play; huge growth rate going forward, this is not an obscure micro cap - this has been a well known - well covered stock by major brokerage houses for a few years. They also have some exceptionally interesting Intnl prospects as well.
EVER is both an exploitation & development and less of an exploration play - again, their web site will explain what differentiates them from their peers and it goes into their low cost bais of producing/growth potential etc.
Your cost per cu ft to share price, or even price/sales ratio, or price:boe does not tell you many things; such as reserve life, production growth potential, it does not account for changes up, or down in cap ex spending when companies go into developmental, or exploitive modes, versus major drilling production modes and it certainly does not address profitabilty. In these CBM plays - many times waterflood projects skew the price:sales, or price to cu ft/boe #'s. It is not a bad initial screen, but certainly not a benchmark screen, or metric.
It totally ignores the cost's of that production especially - as EVER is one of, if not "the" lost cost producer. You could have a company losing money hand over fist and its shareprice would be low & could even be in negative cash flow technically and it would give you a great share price/cu ft ratio etc. Actually your metric could select the worst play in the sector. Take a look at Anadarko/APC - it would look terrible on your screen as well - but, is priced higher in many of its multiples because of the estimated growth rate, reserves, reserve life & exploration portfolio & drilling expertise they possess etc.
Go to EVER's web site @ evergreen-res.com
Click on the "Evergreen leads the Industry Icon"
#1 in the following:
Cost per mcf in finding & development
Lease operating expense
Reserve replacement efficiency - * this is a biggie !
Drilling costs in finding & development
... also near the top with 3 to 5 year EPS growth estiamtes from 30-50% from analysts.
<<EVER is the priciest EnP I follow. Dividing share price by cubic feet per share of production yields 7+ cents per share, WAY above the industry norm.>>
... again, of course it would - as would any company with a 3 year estimated 50% growth rate.
<<They also got a paltry $1.64/Mcf last quarter. That is AWFUL.>>
... you lept before you looked on that one. Again, it is a Coal Bed Methane play & its costs are allways at, or near the best in the sector and they are a big hedger - of which we are now seeing the flip side of that double edged sword of hedging, in that now many companies will receive higher than market prices via their hedging. It's the "net back" that is important in EVER.
<<Also didn't see any oil production in last quarter's numbers or SEC filings, only NG. Perhaps they forgot to include oil production in the figures?>>
... again,EVER is a near CBM pureplay - if you want oil, buy VPI - and nothing else (VBG) - most leveraged to crude price changes and unhedged - their is NO OTHER play on crude oil prices that touches VPI - period, game-set & match; end of story.
<<Given the high price there is probably something I am missing. Maybe their distribution system is highly profitable. When I saw there was no oil production, I stopped researching this one. Good luck.>>
... yup, there was a lot you were missing - ala~ all 6 analysts having Strong Buy ratings & per the EVER web site; this is a technological & cost efficient, growth machine powerhouse. This is a "boutique" Nat Gas play that would compare to most of its peers in a way that would be analagous to buying a hand built Ferrari vs. buying a Mustang GT off the showrooom floor; both are sports cars and the Mustang gives you a lower cost per HP; but that cost per horsepower ignores a lot of other factors in what you are really buying ! - is that am understandable analogy for someone from Detroit ? - or, like celebrating New Years Eve with Cold Duck vs. Dom Perignon etc... yes; you got more ml per cent; but ... you do "usually" get what you pay for :)
... once again - got VPI ? |
