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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: MythMan who wrote (79136)12/10/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 86076
 
what happens: the indices will collapse....last October's lows ( the previous wave 4 lows) are an intermediate term target. that would be Dow 7,500 and NAZ 1,400 approximately. when? that's the hard part. i'm really not sure about that. basically the possibilities are: a) very soon, because either Y2K is not a non-event or easy Al begins to mop up some of the emergency liquidity, or b) late next year, as the limit of new credit creation is reached, and the dollar finally collapses due to the exploding current account deficit.
ultimately i believe that a secular bear market could possibly wipe out most of the gains the market has made during the roaring '90's before a lasting bottom is found. i base this on the observation that like in Japan, everything that has worked in favor of the bull market, from the U.S. variation of zaiteku to the mindless buying of the index funds will work exactly in reverse during a bear market. the stock buybacks will only leave damaged and overleveraged balance sheets behind, the index funds will switch to mindless selling, the IPO driven tech spending will disappear, etc.
by the time it is over, most people will wish they had never heard of the stock market...
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