Does anyone have any thoughts about the hypothesis that the recent euphoria and strong endorsement of Linux is a market signal of a subtle rejection of the MSFT camp and an endorsement of the SUNW/ORCL/AOL camp?
I don't think it's all that subtle, but I think the rejection part is a larger component than the endorsement part.
The ZD Puppet Press refers angrily to an "ABM or Anyone But Microsoft" movement, and I believe there's something to this. The Linux phenomenon in large part reflects significant pent-up demand for a real alternative to M$FT products. The data about M$FT being the least-liked and least-trusted company among IT managers have been trotted past this group many times.
Four factors have held down Linux for Intel's momentum:
a) Microsoft's monopolistic business practices
b) Lack of commercial Linux product and support
c) Lack of a decent GUI and administration facilities
d) Lack of applications.
a) was an important one, and is getting fixed (or is already fixed depending on whom you ask). RHAT, LNUX, CORL etc. are fixing b). There is still a long way to go on c)--let's not kid ourselves, Linux is still too much of a challenge for the average desktop user to administer--but real progress is being made, and d) will get fixed in the next year to a level where it is a relatively minor problem, at least in terms of volume horizontal applications.
Once these problems are fixed to an acceptable level, which seems to me to be close at hand, I don't see what stands in the way of tens of millions of Linux desktops. Dell, GTW, and all the old-line M$FT captive boxmakers will be forced by the existing "white box" culture and other upstart competition to bundle Linux as an option, and the DOJ will stop, or has stopped, Microsoft from contractually blocking them from doing so.
Linux is already gaining significant share in small servers and IMHO will begin to do so on desktops as problems c) and d) smooth out. It will take a large chunk of W2K's revenue. Again, though I view this trend more as a reaction than as an explicit endorsement of SUNW/ORCL/AOL, all kinds of collateral benefits for those companies fall out of the Linux phenomenon.
Regards,
--QwikSand |
