Good news, bad news on Niles..
While Niles HAS made some good calls in the past (despite was Niles haters would say)...however, almost all (all?) came within a couple weeks of earnings releases...when, it was apparent, he was tipped (in some form or fashion) about the company's (in question) results.....His record is much less stellar when he makes a mid-quarter (in the case of Dell, not even) call....for example, he was way off on his (mid-term) call on Dell's quarter ending in August..and has missed some Intel calls too....
Nonetheless, I would rather hear Niles say "things are going well" than not (at this point)...it IS probably the case that sales are a bit slow here...but with more than 60% of Dell's business to go in the quarter (not including the "wildcard" Y2K after-month of January...it will be interesting...Haven't we heard many times that 30% of Dell's business occurs in the last two weeks of the quarter? Can Niles ALREADY know how that's going to go...it would see unlikely
Also, I would hope that Dell's management was a bit more conservative with their EPS/revenue targets (guidance)for this quarter...given the disappointments of the past few quarters....Dell can not afford to miss again (on either the revenue or earnings line)...Certainly, Y-O-Y comparisons for this quarter (revenue) and next quarter (both revenue and earnings) are going to be eas(ier) than usual...remember Q4 (revenue) and Q1 (revenue and earnings) were not so good (by Dell's standards)...so, that should give Dell a little help...
Main thing to remember: Niles is making a bold, early call here..on limited information...we'll see...but it would be awfully disappointing if Niles is right about this quarter(when the CC and forward guidance for this quarter) were less than a month ago...That (along with the October chip "problem") would certainly be a clear sign that Dell's management can not give the type of accurate, "make-able" forecasts that to which we have become accustomed..and, if so, the stock should have some sort of discount built-in (if not, to some extent, already) |
