Tyco International Limited (TYC) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Tyco International Limited (TYC)

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To: JRI who wrote (1005)	12/10/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: Alohal	Read Replies (1) of 3770

Well if the drop from 45 to 35 was tax-loss selling then the drop from 35 to 25 would certainly trigger more of the same. Are there any tax rule reasons why institutions shouldn't take a tax loss "gift" right at the end of the year and buy it back again 30 days later in January if they believe they can get it back at a small premium then? Unless there are, it seems to me we will see continued tax selling through most of December. Also seems to me that the stock would be "churrned" until mid Jan when it would go higher as they bought back in (obviously those who recognized this sold early and reasonably should get back in at a lower price will do better than those who sold later-unless there is an upward bias in the price towards the end of Dec). This "January effect" would normally have been very good for TYC stock price, but now it should be GREAT! It would seem. Then it occurred to me that we may have been seeing the "January effect" happening in November and December, as the really smart, daring and clever investors (unfortunately not me) chose to take their tax loss in September and October and repurchase the shares aggressively after November 1st.( This September/October sellers, especially in the internut sector, certainly would have maximized their losses.) It seems likely that these buyers have been joined steadily by a lot, but probably not most, of the Y2K money that is beginning to believe that it will be a non-event. All this makes me think we are much less likely to see as strong a "Jan effect" if any at all. Seems to be a hint of a feeding frenzy beginning to draw accelerating amounts of cash from the sidelines, just to squeeze out a few more points on the poor old laboring NAZ. All of which may have the consequence that January may not be a terribly good month for TYC (and a lot of other stocks too). There are so many smart and informed folks on this thread that I thought I would present these ideas here and see if anyone thought they were off-the-wall.<gg> None of which changes anything about my long term out look for TYC and I hope to be accumulating shares as it dips and rises during the churn. Cheers Alohal

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