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One reason that Softbank makes so much money for us is that we are all, at least mostly, holding on. If Softbank were a stock like CISCO or EMC or VRTS we would see meaningful earnings and then when the P/E ratio went up to X, we might be frightened by the view from the high place and toss the stock out to relieve the strain. Softbank, like CMGI,SFE, ICGE,and even BRKA, doesn't have meaningful earnings so all we can do is watch the fun as bright idea after bright idea gets launched. I think the recently revealed plan to buy offline companies which are selling cheaply, internetize them, and then sell them as very much more valuable properties is ingenious and delightful. So when is the time to sell Softbank? When we see something better. For me that won't be until after, maybe long after, internet usage has increased to half the population in the countries where 9984 has significant investments. Before that we can say the internet is still in its infancy. Broadband will make a great difference also. Probably I should revise that to "internet usage with broad band has increased to half the population." |
