Well Jim Willie, I see that the Econ 101, Economically Correct, I do Not Deserve Success Crowd as began to muster together again and expound on their reasons WHY THAT DAMN OLD CORRECTON IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER and WOW, they can give you a damn good reason to, you want to hear it? Yep, By-God this market has just gone too far too fast. They can't give you any substantiation for such a statement but they can flat tell you there is going to be that damn old correction. What is funny, is any idiot drawing a breath knows that the market will correct at some point but, does it have to be now? Yes Sir Ree Bob, it sure does because they have heard all these older guys that were around in 1987 and even before then, tell them this market has got to correct and soon!
Now the reason we get this from the usual crowd is because they all find comfort in being ECONOMICALLY CORRECT! You see that comes before anything, it even comes before telling you the facts, I mean hell, if you've made a lot of money in something so God Forsaken as the Stock Market, man you better give it back because one day it will be judged as ill gotten gain, I mean after all who could possibly deserve such success. These people remind me of something I wrote about the masses about 25 years ago:
" We are scared little Mice, looking for other scared little Mice, before those scared little Mice find other scared little Mice"!
The Economically Correct people, rather than tell you that there is for all practical purposes no Inflation, they'll mutter something about Price Earnings Ratios and instead of informing one of the FANTASTIC PRODUCTIVITY coming out of this once in a lifetime economy, they dwell on the fact that LINUX, one stock out of thousands zoomed to over three hundred on it's IPO. They also don't tell you of the people that bought the IPO at over three hundred and lost over $100 per share. They don't tell you that this great correction is bearing down on us while Dell sits at about $42 a share or that Compaq is wallowing around in the high Twenties. They don't DEFINE A CATALYST that is suppose to bring this horrible correction to bear, nope, just by god it has to happen because it has just GONE TOO FAR TOO FAST, now like I have said before, WHO SET THE SPEED LIMIT AND THE DISTANCE? Well don't expect an answer because they are too busy pointing out that EMPLOYMENT is just too damn low and BY God somebody is going to pay, and they do not care that inflation may run along at 2 to 3 % next year and they sure as hell are not going to tell you of the record earnings that this great economy is providing. Nope, they just want to make dang sure you understand that this horrible correction is just around the corner, why? It is the ECONOMICALLLY CORRECT thing to say, I mean after all they did not get that degree from the Wharton School of Business for nothing, I mean hell, they learned about 12 to 1 PE's in that place, not to mention the Phillips Curve, I mean geez, who do we think we are doubting the correctness of their negativity.
Here are just a few things they did not dare learn though;
1. Baby Boomers and their Purchasing Power.
2. The Disappearance of the Inflation Tax
3. Exponential Increases in Productivity.
4. Unbelievably low Interest rates.
5. Impact of global Economy,
6. Balanced Budget
ECT. ECT. ECT.
Yes, there will be a correction at some point but it will not be what these people along with the Graybeards of the street expect. What will happen is, the Econ 101 establishment along with all their followers will try and create the correction that their Gods at Wharton told them has to happen and they will succeed up to a point. They will sell everything they own, run like hell out of the Casino, get about 25 yards away, they'll all look back, see that the logical, non emotional, non conforming and strong individuals with a little logic and foresight have refused to join them and BACK THEY WILL COME talking about how that was JUST A TEMPORARY TOP and that Damn Old Correction is still JUST AROUND THE CORNER! Geeez! LET ME TELL YOU FOLKS, IT ANT'T GOING TO HAPPEN as long as the liquidity remains at the current levels and the other aforementioned dynamics stay in play and all should increase to the plus side after the first of the year. Our friend edamo said it best - No Bull, No Bear just tremendous volatility. So, if you are not on margin or near term calls, just relax and continue to enjoy this fifteen year bull market unless, YOU FEEL YOU DON'T DESERVE IT LIKE THEY DO!
From the porch,
Voltaire
P.S. - Now what was their last big scare? Oh thats right - Y2K, geeez, how could I forget! Sleep well! |
