we heard same "too far too fast" on QCOM back in summer
agreed on productivity, on inflation, on liquidity, on bommer buypower, on global economy
doubt we will have huge volatility though
ironically I believe the balanced budget will result in slight upward pressure on interest rates... commodities in demand will also build that pressure... the Fed will continue to be strongly motivated to give the appearance of vigilance to inflation... Greenspan will continue to address inflationary threat which is nonexistent... the Fed will NOT allow TBond yield to drop much in the face of large budget surpluses... the increasing demand for capital will continue to put mild pressure on rates... check out crude oil, over $25 per barrel and stable
Economically Correct makes me puke about as much as Politically Correct
I dont subscribe to either norm
they both fly in the face of reality and natural normalcy
actually I believe your Econ Correct concept is really Politically Correct as applied to economic issues... tons of political pressure placed upon economists to ply their trade and spin their yarns
remember this important fact for Y2K:
economists are the worst group of statisticians, BAR NONE
this is my field... I defer to you gearheads on engineering matters, to you accountants on financial matters... I have several dozen statistician friends, and more acquaintances... economists are the group most influenced by politics, and most drawn toward political arenas... furthermore, put an economist in a political environment like in Washington DC, and you have the worst of both worlds... in WashDC you have poor equipment as well
economists put out as dogma these "irrefutable truths"
- like unemploymt under 5% results in inflation
- like capital utilization over 85% results in inflation
- like recessions follow expansions after 3-4 years
- like increases in wage rates are inflation
BUT THEIR GREATEST ERROR IS:
- GROWTH RESULTS IN INFLATION
- RAPID GROWTH RESULTS IN RAPID INFLATION
they never heard about money supply relation to inflation
at my company, I show disrespect and disdain for all economists
economists are the absolute LAST group of quantitative "experts" to grasp changes in structural dynamics, like technology revolution, like worldwide expansion in supply and labor since Berlin Wall fell
I am wearing myself out... I need a Saturday nap
/ jim |
