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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 695.17

+0.2%

Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (24531)	12/11/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (4) of 69695

I was asked to comment on the outlook for next year on wireless and B2B. As part of my answer I would expand on that theme and say that telecom continues to be an area to be invested in long term. Good reviews of what the outlook for the next 6 months in telecom will be: cbs.marketwatch.com boards.fool.com I would add that it looks like 2000 will be the year for xDSL deployment. You can already see this in the climb in price of ALA, ADTN and AFCI the last 2 weeks. ADCT will also benefit. It looks like singificant contract will be let next year by the RBOC's (regional bell operating comapnies) . I was surprised to see the mention of ORTL as it is still a turn around story and currently does not supply much in the way D-WDW components. The Tellium holdings of ORTL could add significantly to ORTL's market cap due to it s 18 percent holding in the company. That may explain the 20 point gap on Friday. Caution here as it may mean the valuation of the other stocks are getting extended and the market is looking for other stories to catch on too. NEWP is an under covered story here too. TLAB still looks good here for entry on the long side as it is currently lagging its peers due to the loss of a potential contract. Management is very good and tells it like it is. It has a consistent record of beating EPS estimates. It's digital cross connect product is sold into the wireless infrastructure market in Europe through ERICY. NT will climb here due to it optical exposure and the change to US accounting principles in January should make more US mutual funds comfortable with holding this stock. This has been a confusing stock for US analysts and this has been evident on the CC's. I was also surprised NOK was not mentioned, though it sell handset a significant part of its revenues come from the infrastructure side. FWIW, I'll try to add to this post later this weekend/next week as time allows. Please feel free to add comments/suggestion as this document evloves. Anyone want to take a crack at the B2B segment, I am playing this sector, one step removed? I prefer the contractors like IFMX, IBM, ORCL, MERQ, UNFY, ITWO to the actual B2B internet stocks. These are actually stocks closer to valuations that can be justified by their growth rates and for the most part they are making money. Caution here, just because I have mentioned a stocks does not say that it is not overvalued short term. Look for proper entry points.

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