Just read Physicsdh's post on Yahoo regarding Q4 earnings estimate. A few observations:
1) The $1.01 loss obviously includes the special charge. Analyst's estimates usually factor out special charges and then the street looks at the earnings excluding the special charges to see if the company was under or over.
2) I like the way SNDV did this estimate, because XICO is still relatively unknown and if SNDV had an income estimate, excluding special charges of say $0.08 and the headline comes out with $1.01 loss, the stock would get killed.
2) Since I think the income, excluding special charges, in Q4 could easily be $0.08, this implies that the special charge would be $1.09 or around $22.0 mm. This seems high to me given the total equipment was only $29.1 mm at September 30. I know you have severance and other costs, but this still seems high. Either SNDV is really low balling Q4 or Bruce is really cleaning things out like I hoped he would.
3) If I am right on earnings without the special charge, in Q4 of at least $0.08 and they do take a $22 mm charge, then the estimate of only $0.11 in Q1 is a joke!
4) It will be interesting to see how the Q4 results fall out and get reported. I hope I am not missing something here, because if they don't make close to $0.08 without special charges in Q4 and only make $0.11 in Q1, then I will be disappointed. However, don't worry, I won't be asking any questions on the cc. Now that we have real analysts covering the stock, the need for my questions, if there ever was a need, is over. I will now be in a listen only mode as I am on all the other tech stocks I own. |
