Paul,
Re:"The problem for AMD is that all the major OS's have already been ported to IA/64 bit architecture, and Intel is shipping IA/64 bit systems to hardware AND software developers.
Thus, by the time SLUDGEHummer comes out, all the major players will have had 18 months of IA/64 development under their belts, and will be shipping their applications running under EPIC/IA/64 versions of Windows 2000, Solaris, Linux, Monterey, etc.
That puts AMD well behind the 64 bit 8-ball - late again to the new market !
Even when AMD was EARLY to market with 3DNOT!, they barely attracted anybody but gamers to use that software, giving up a nine month lead to Intel's SSE.
Now, when SLUDGEHummer appears, AMD will have a NEGATIVE 18 month "lead" - I doubt that any major developers will shift gears from IA64 - unless the IA64 is a total bust.
So far, the ITaniun sounds like it will be what Intel expected it to be - far from a bust."
You make some excellent comments.
If windoze and Linux are not ported to Sledgehammer then I agree it will be a dead duck.
As far as Itanium, I agree it will be big, very big for Intel in the 2002-2005 arena and allow penetration into "big-iron" apps. However my understanding is that Itanium systems will run in the $100K plus range.
I don't expect sledgehammer to ever play in that arena.
I can see it play in the $2-25K server market ie where Intels Xeons/cascades play.
I can also see it play on high-end desktops.
Lots of folks may buy it even though they only need 32 bits - just so they can be 64 bit compatible.
If the die size adder of 5% is true - I can see AMD moving its high end CPU's to sledgehammer.
Lots of folks hate to buy an expensive CPU if they think it will be out of date and not be able to run some future s/w.
An example is folks who are buying HDTV's even though hardly anything comes in HDTV. And even when transmissions start common delivery methods such as cable/DirecTV won't work for many years due to bandwidth issues.
But I do agree that timing of sledgehammer will be key.
AMD must deliver it in early 2001 or mid 2001 at the latest. And they need to give some indication of major software support - such as msft in 2000.
regards,
Kash |
