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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks

NN 14.21

+1.7%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: thebeach who wrote (15606)	12/12/1999 2:56:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) of 18016

the beach and Bob Howarth: let us read the tea leaves and thus reliably figure out NN's price next week. Before we do that I think we should at least try and gatherÿ some objective data. Well there aren't any because TM hasn't spoken. What I like to do in these cases is look at the landscapeÿ for clues like our old Indian trackers. Look for signs,clues and see if we can interpret them. I will divide the clues into bullish and bearish whichÿ the old Indian methods depending on what they where hunting: The first very objective clue I find is that NN threadsÿ ( SI and YHOO ) have suddenly died over the weekend. Why we then ask? Threads are usually kept alive by a combination of bulls and ÿbears I think as the next objective clue.And in the past that has been true for NN. Question is where are the bulls AND the bears? Obviously they are gone. But where? One reason is that they have run out of ammo to shootÿ at each other : ( all : please don't laugh ). But that is an important clue. Nowÿ to meÿ ( a dyed in the wool NN bull )ÿ that is a bullish clue: the fact thatÿ bears have run out of ammo that is. No more hurlings of epithets and anatomical references. So then the next logical question is why did the bears run out of ammo?ÿ My take is that they see NN developments, in general,ÿ to be positive. Not only that but they must feel helpless to fight back with whatever air - gun pellets they got left. Again that is a bullish sign. Unless of course they have gone away to rearm. Well only time will tell on that.[ Monday ? :-) ] Meanwhile however scratch that as a victory for bulls the fact that bears are ( even if temporarily ? ) gone. The 2nd objective clue is the defection of a bear into the bullish camp:ÿ I am talking of Peppe: a long time bear. When an enemy gives up his rifle and says I am joining you guys that is also a bullish sign wouldn't you say? ( unless of course Peppe is a spy for the bears . Comments from long time bulls ar eÿ welcome on theirÿ evaluation of Peppe's bullish or bearish true stripes;ÿ personally I think that Peppe is now a card carrying NNÿ bull even ifÿ temporarily until that isÿ he doubles his money and leaves.ÿ Which is all right with me; As an investor Iÿ don't care how I double my investment as long as it is doneÿ rapidly with minimal blood loss). The third clue is Institutional buying. These are the guys TM and Pearseÿ talked to after the cc and who as usual know more than the little guy. The fourth clue is that volume remains healthy and that this is the largest volume spike since 1995: siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com And as Bill O'Neil from Invest Bus daily said: volume precedes price increases. Finally another clue is the festive mood. Between Xmas, burning sales, and Y2K celebrations,ÿ the Naz Tech Market has gotten a new life regardless ofÿ whether some feel this is a bubble. We are hitting daily new heights.ÿ The Fed is on hold until Y2K has run it's course. So when I look at the tea leaves they tell me we have good weather near term. However alternate opinions are always welcome. And now off to the Mall, back later :-) TA

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