Mark, from the transaction with Eagle Pitcher, it seems that the Si-28 will go for about $75,000/kg, am I wrong with this calculation? I am assuming that the 4 MM shares at $3.75/share are worth $15 MM and that in turn is worth 200 Kg of Si-28. Well, normal silicon (purity suitable for crystal growth) goes for about $75/kg. I just cannot fathom a device that can justify 1000 times the cost of the raw material (particularly for whole wafers, where the 50% advantage in thermal conductivity and improved charge carriers mobility is greatest). It would, IMHO, be much simpler to do the same thing in GaAs, and with GaAs you gain the ability to do electrooptical devices on the same chip as the digital devices. Despite the much superior performance of GaAs, after 15 years of major efforts, it still is only something less than 5% of the total semiconductor shipments. The cost difference in raw materials is only a factor of 10 to 20 or so.
It seems that ISON is now shifting from a producer of isotopes to a developer of applications, that might actually be good for the stock, once the business model is better elaborated and visibility of success is clearer. However, assuming that the Si-28 program will bring anything but some minor R&D products, is, IMHO, a folly. Carbon 14 based medical inhalation tests might have more immediate success, I do not know, however, how ISON is planning to capitalize on this.
Good luck.
Zeev |
