Lee, I advanced the thesis about two years ago that for an extended period (probably till 2005) the DOW would trade in a broad range of 10,500 to 5000. Well, the first part of this thesis is out of the window, and I have had to increase the top to about 12,800 or so. But the general thesis is still in place, earnings will have to catch up with valuation. I do not see a major bear, however, until 2001, the first year of a new administration, and the current momentum indicates to me that January 2000 might be explosive, possibly setting the high for most of next year.
I am ready, as always, to adjust upward my top target, but I think that everyone should be ready for a period in which bear markets (anywhere from 6 months to 12 months or so) interrupt this mania, as Haim calls it.
Zeev |
