FWIW, I think the stock is likely to hold the $ 15.00 level - on a technical basis it made a 'higher low' on Friday than the Thursday $ 14 7/8-$ 15 low.
My experience is that issues typical retrace 1/3 to 2/3 of their advance - the difference between the two fractions being the degree to which the rise is real, the condition of the market, and the likelihood of any near-term news to propel the stock further.
Take your pick on any of these conditions re Valence. If there is a 2/3 retracement of the $ 10 - $ 20 area, the stock could get back to $ 13 and change (assuming a steady market, which is always risky...). If they have another announcement in the very near future, the stock will, in my opinion, turn around and move to a new high, ie into the low 20s....
I personally think that the stock is acting pretty well and will not get back to the $ 13 area. Others disagree. That's what makes a market.
BTW, I've never met anyone successful in picking absolute bottoms or tops, so I am happy to stay with the trend, as long as the company continues to move ahead in its technology. I remain convinced that the company will be a very satisfactory investment at these levels over the next 3-5 years....
Specific advice? Buy 1/2 of your remaining speculative funds here, save the other 1/2 for future investment in the stock, either on a pullback to the low teens or a breakout above $ 20.50.... That advice and about $ 1.00 will get you a ride on some local MTA, I think... |
