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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Biomaven who wrote (7287)	12/13/1999 1:27:00 AM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (2) of 9719

<<It is often a big mistake to not invest in the first drug on the scene >> I am not sure I would reach the same conclusion. In addition to Viracept there are a number of situations that have gone the other way. Biogen's Avonex is an example. Arguably better effacacy but clearly more convenient with fewer side effects. Although Betaseron had about a 1 year lead Avonex has dominated and those who made the bet on the better molecule won big. You site CELG and PCYC as examples of buying too early. these companies had great years. CELG for example was caught earlier in the year in the small cap malaise. IMO it was a great pick a year ago. Yes you could have bought it at $20 in September but no one is that good. If you try and time it too close you can miss an opportunity. CLTR has been a dog this year because management blew the BLA filing not because Bex isn't a major advancement in NHL. Maybe thats the point, the reason these biotech investments have to generate huge IRRs is because there is so much risk in getting through the approval process. Once a drug is approved that risk is no longer present. Patient empowerment is going to be interesting. As Miljenko stated a few posts back cancer patients are not nearly as well educated and organized as HIV patients. However, the tide is turning and the doctor patient relationship is changing. IMO the internet will have a profound impact on doctor patient relationships. Patients knowledge will force the doc.s themselves to become more up to date on the latest innovations and clinical studies. Knowledge is power and the internet gives patients power. V1

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