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Technology Stocks : Frank Coluccio Technology Forum - ASAP

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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (711)12/13/1999 6:18:00 AM
From: Rande Is   of 1782
 
Frank, thanks for taking the time to answer my vague and rambling question. You have turned some lights on AROUND the subject enough that I am at least able to make out what my question really is. The problem in narrowing down my question, is the complexity of T's EXTENDED business model as I see it. You point out that T is primarily a carrier. But my question is more about the T holdings and whether there is any concerted effort toward bringing about some sort of "master plan" of T. . .[asked at the end of this post]. . .

For clarity sake, I call NGI anything that is not text-based. I worked for Viewtron in 1983, which was America's first commercial graphic based "videotext" online service [using NAPLPS protocol], which did MOST of the same sort of functions as today's internet [from a practical sense]. . .news off the wire service, secure credit card shopping, airline reservations, stock quotes, etc., home banking, electronic Hallmark greeting cards, keyword driven search engines, online encyclopedias, email, chat rooms, message boards . . . you name it. . . and over an A.T. & T. "Sceptre" set-top box. . . with a remote control keypad browser with "next, back, reload, etc.". . . And at just 1200 bps via POTS, the graphical screens still painted faster than the average internet home page with a 56k modem on a dial-up. .[3 seconds or so] .again, this was back in 1983.

Nothing has changed since then. AOL & Prodigy scarfed up the brains behind Viewtron and kept the concept alive. . .then came the commercialized internet, a sort of parallel universe to these online services. So what we do today, is still an extension of what we were doing every day in 1983. The cable modem I am sending this on through ATHM measures out at a top speed of 4M when I need it, yet the majority of what is being sent back and forth over fibre, cable or telephone is still text. Some graphics, some photos, some music but mostly text.

So regardless of whether we call it Next Generation Internet, Internet2, or any particular company's "new thing". . .for the sake of argument, I am calling any service that sends a two-way digital stream of video & audio and is fully interactive and has a portal to which it connects with the internet as we know it. .. . "NGI". If it is NOT text based, then it is next generation. . .let others argue over what to call it.

So to bring us back to the original question. . . T is invested in [whether directly or indirectly] Liberty Media, Liberty Digital, Newscorp, General Instrument, Excite/@Home, Time Warner, and uh. . .it's 4am so bear with me. . .that's enough for now. We'll call this the "T Team". . . with the assumption that what is good for the T Team is most likely going to benefit T, either directly or indirectly.

Now. . .it would seem that T is "using" some of these companies to further extend their reach and covering their bases, with regard to revenue generating internet services. . . and perhaps some leverage of their fibre/cable network. Liberty Media & Liberty Digital are the two I am most concerned with, because they are literally A.T. & T. under a psuedonym, due to the controlling interest. Liberty Media has become the catch all for internet, media and cable related services, as I recall. . . for T. Liberty Digital is streaming video and audio services.

T invested heavily in General Instrument, then gave them a huge contract to build set-top boxes [fibre optics with telephony], then accepted a half-billion from Microsoft, just to boot these bad boys up with some form of Windows [probably CE]. [Since then, MOT bought GIC]. Rupert Murdoch's Newscorp and Time Warner are 2 T investments that provide a wealth of TV/film programming content. . .and access to more direct fibre into the home, through Warner's cable affiliates.

Here alas, is my question. . .which has been broken down for convenience. . .

Could there be a "master plan" of sorts, toward delivering streaming video / audio / telephony that incorporates the T Team collectively? Or do the members of the T Team simply act on their own, making their own decisions for their own benefits?

To what extent is T pulling the strings of the members of the T Team, with regard to their tailoring to suit T's "plans."

In watching the T Team members, their acquisitions and the completeness of the "ensemble", with regard to covering so many bases, with an eye toward the future. . . .I cannot help but think there is a concerted effort. The acquisitions simply do not seem "random" enough. . .they make too much sense toward a "bigger picture", in my opinion.

And if there is a concerted effort, then it stands to reason that there is a puppet master or conductor. And there is my original question. . . First, is T working toward "breaking out" REAL TIME streaming video/audio on demand, coupled with streaming video telephony through fibre-optics, wired directly into the home via the set-top box? [Given the speed at which these things are coming to market of late. . .when could we see real-time video servers sending "The Matrix" downstream into my home at my command?]

And second [the meat of the question at last], will this happen BEFORE the government funded Internet2 or any inter-corporate Next-Generation Internet projects? Or must it be a part of them?

And while I am at it, Frank. . .who will win the Super Bowl? And what will be the final score?

Thanks,

Rande Is

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