Hi, CT--
I'll have to kind of "split the difference" in answering your question: I bought PVSW because it has the kind of story to become a momo, but my original timeframe was 3-6 months. My timing was based on a desire to get in before the Tango Linux release, because I figured it would spike the stock and worsen my entry point, but I personally am more interested in PVSW's emerging position in the broader Web development/serving market and the information-appliance market. These are going to be big themes going forward, and I feel like PVSW at these price levels offers a ground-floor opportunity to get in on a potential runner.
Look at the valuation of PVSW compared to its principal competitors in the Web development/serving space:
ALLR: $2.125 billion
SSSW: $1.787 billion
BLSW: $1.519 billion
PVSW: $0.268 billion
It's harder to come by useful comparisons in the appliance market, but consider:
LBRT: $7.526 billion
WIND: $1.737 billion
PVSW: $0.268 billion
My feeling when I bought in was that PVSW should be able to close the gap with stocks like BLSW and SSSW. ALLR is the standard-bearer in the development/serving space, but PVSW certainly is right in there with BLSW and SSSW as next-level competitors in that space. When I see such a huge disparity between PVSW and BLSW/SSSW, I see opportunity.
And, remember, PVSW still has its profitable client-server database business and its new foray into the info-appliance business on top of this.
As for the earnings "warnings" and the resulting lawsuits, my feeling is that PVSW is making a smart investment in its long-term future and so is warranted in spending the $13 million next year on marketing, channel development, and product enhancements. Growth in the client-server database market is slowing, and I think the company is making a very shrewd decision to leverage its core technologies and enter two new, rapidly growing markets. If PVSW would have gone out and acquired companies to enter these spaces -- instead of investing cash to grow organically into these spaces -- the Street would have loved it. That's nuts! PVSW has a strong balance sheet and certainly is not proposing to spend money that it doesn't have. Why not let them invest in themselves and make themselves an even stronger company?
Here's a note I posted last week on the PVSW thread that addresses some of these issues more pointedly:
Message 12249401
The bottom line, for me, is this: I like this stock because the beating it took made it a fantastic "value play" relative to its competitors in the Web development/serving and information-appliance markets. PVSW has the potential to participate in the buzz that will help define momo investing in 2000, and it's that kind of intermediate-term appreciation I am hoping to join in on.
Of course, if this thing spikes dramatically near-term and gets ahead of itself, I may treat it as a trader again. I would prefer a more steady course, though, so I don't feel compelled to babysit it.
Hope this helps. Best of luck to you! |
