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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Biomaven who wrote (7287)	12/13/1999 11:07:00 AM
From: biowa	Read Replies (1) of 9719

Peter, Great observations, and I'm not arguing the imminent demise of IDPH (In fact, as V1 can verify I was once a wet blanket on speculation about CLTR putting Rit out of business). Yet, IF the clinical results we "saw" at ASH bear out I do think Bex will eat into Rit mkt shr more quickly than it seems you're suggesting. Unless the subset of oncologists I know is an aberration, there seems to be way too much emphasis on the patients having to drag their doctor to Bex. Yes, there will be some docs who will hang their hats on experience and longer clinical data, but what constitutes a significant impact on Rit's sales? Even if only 10% were early adopters (conservative IMO, if once again data is as seen thus far) that hits Rit's market share. What's more, even the perception that Bex is eating into Rit mkt shr more rapidly than expected will be multiplied by the market. I really believe that oncologists will be efficacy driven, but probably the only way to fully resolve this would be a well-designed survey of oncologists. And ultimately, payers may be the more important question. This is a great debate, BTW. FWIW, biowa

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