Getrich, thanks for the analysis. I am reposting the following from another SI thread (with apologies to AJ Berger) - *emphasis mine*
""SELECTIVE MEMORY -- Fujitsu will delay by six months opening its $1B DRAM expansion in Gresham, Ore., pushing production start back to July 1997. Originally slated to manufacture 16M synchronous DRAMs, the fab will now skip 16M chips altogether and go straight into 64M synchronous DRAM production. The company is said to be retooling for 64M now, which **could add up to 25 percent of the start-up cost**. The Gresham facility currently employs 575 people, 45 of whom were hired to operate the new module. An additional 70 workers will be put on hold until the fab opens. A source close to *Fujitsu said similar changes may take place* at their Durham, England, fab. The company is *altering its memory roadmap* as a result of price erosion in the 16M densities and below; however, 16M customers will still be supplied through the Iwate fab in Japan.""
Now, who is going to pocket those 25% increases popping up in the capital budgets of *leading* (Hitachi, Fujitsu, Texas Ins; ... actually, see Tencor's web site for a list of the top 25) IC makers? Note that the *timing* of what kind of equipment gets bought first will affect short-term earnings for the potential semi equipment suppliers. Purchase of Tencor's (or KLA's) products that may be needed for back-end monitoring may be delayed or 'pushed-out', while other types of equipment may be ordered on time or even pulled in.
Now, which are the companies being slaughtered today (and last week and probably over the next week or so) in Wall Street?
Did anyone say 'efficient market theory'? |
