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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 78.42

+1.9%

Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: The Phoenix who wrote (30179)	12/13/1999 1:16:00 PM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (2) of 77400

CSCO guys....why pretend Cisco is a player in the telecom and public backbone network field whey they clearly are NOT! Let's agree that CSCO is a dominant router company (for now) and that is where their bread & butter will be coming from. Do not hang your hopes too much on CSCO bursting through in the Carrier/PTT market......it ain't gonna happen no matter what positive spin Cisco puts out. Not saying they will never succeed but it will be a difficult market for them to win and the price that they are paying now to get into PTT market is well........HUGE. The impact of their redeployment of capital/internal resource WILL have substantial earnings impact going forward. Add to this potential Waterloo, if their router business takes a hit for any reason.....watch out for major pullback in the CSCO share price. It is difficult to believe that CSCO is that vulnerable because all you have seen is a continual climb up but understanding basic fundamental risk issues at play will enlighten the sophisticated investors of the downside risk of holding Csco for limited upside potential. Remember what Grove said.......inflection points are rarely easy to spot and when things can't seem to go wrong -- that's when you start looking for cover. Actually, to me, it's pretty clear that there is a substantial downside risk and it's amazing that very few CSCO posters/investors on this site seem to acknowlege it.

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