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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 78.42

+1.9%

Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: Eric who wrote (30194)	12/13/1999 2:18:00 PM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (5) of 77400

The small startups that CSCO might have chance to work with will all be bought out by the WorldCom's and Deutche Telecom's of the world and when that happens, guess who's equipment will be turfed out. Look at what happened in the ISP service world..........majority of the start up Internet service providers are bought out by the PTT's and RBOC's and those that don't go out of business. It's hard to make money being a regional ISP when the national PTT's come in with billions of marketing dollars and overnight lower the price by 80% to commoditize the access business. Now look at what happened to the networking vendor market......who has bought who? Did the Data/Router mfg like Ascend buy Lucent? Did Bay Networks buyout NT? Almost any promising packet R&D companies will be bought out by NOT another Data vendor but by the traditional Voice Vendor. The bottom line is this: Networking business is a SCALE business meaning the larger you are, the more competitive advantages you have............this is why the consolidation will be the fact of life whether it's voice or DATA. And guess who will win when the consolidation happens in earnest? The old world PTT's and large Carriers like WorldCom, C&W, etc. Cisco can't penetrate the big boys network club for lots of good reasons (not just political) so their only option is to camp with the start-ups and trust me -- the big network owners will not be sitting by idly while the little startups like Viatel, Colt, QWest try to dislodge them........every one of those companies mentioned above will probably be bought out in the next 5 years. I heard lot of bullshit the last 4 years about how Internet Telephony was going to kill the old world PTT's (PsiNet CEO Schrader was the worst at this) by bypassing settlement, taxes, and accounting charges as well as providing FREE Internet Voice applications.....well guess what -- that was lot of hyperbole becasue the wholsale cost of long-distance is down to 2 pennies (US) per minute between US & UK as an example. You couldn't even deliver an internet telephony packet from a local London server to the end-user at that cost! The point is, Internet is amazing and will change the world BUT there is lot of hype and bullshit that is going to hurt lot of pocketbooks for those that are ignorant and are unaware of how technology works and gets adopted in the REAL WORLD. Food for thought?

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