Chris, Going with my homerun policy, I have a third of Jan 50 puts on Ciena, which are the ones I would recommend to 90/10 players. However, as soon as the Febs are available, I'll be going out there. The Aprils are just too pricey, IMHO.
I think low prices are here to stay because there is overcapacity in nearly every industry. What the end of easy IPO money will mean is a huge number of corporate and individual bankruptcies and a multiple of that in cos. barely dragging along at subsistence level. But they don't really have a choice. If you sell a widget and widgets are in glut, and all widgets are these days, except for Pokemon cards and Beanie Babies <g>, you either sell them or die.
Basically, the Fed's easy money policy has led to excessive speculative investment in unneeded capacity while true economic investment, unglamorous that it is, has gone begging hat in hand to bankers.
In my environment, bond yields can only keep going up as long as the stock market bubble keeps expanding. Once that bubble is popped, there won't be anyone borrowing to build capacity and rates will tumble. |
