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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Paul Berliner who wrote (2283)	12/13/1999 9:26:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) of 3536

The most important thing is that there is a recovery in sentiment. I wonder how much sentiment has changed. The other day I met with a Japanese economist who had some statistics on who has been buying Japanese equities the last two years. In 98 the largest buyer was the Japanese trust banks. Foreigners were modest buyers and the other domestic sectors were modest sellers. In 99 foreigners were the only net buyers. All domestic sectors were sellers, even the trust banks. Also did you see the Tankan report this weekend. Capital spending was done again, 10% annual rate. There are other sentiment indicators that show that domestic Japanese sentiment remains restrained. The biggest swing in sentiment has been among foreigners. Why has sentiment shifted among foreigners. Some of it I believe is due to a limited understanding of the extent of the problems. Also I believe a lot of foreigners are still married to the 80s vision of a dominant unstoppable Japan Inc. They don't realize how much the picture has changed.

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