a ballsy TA nearterm call, Elliott Wave somewhat tenuously claimed
I suspect the November breakout was the beginning of a beautiful new debutante phenomenon... Wall Street suits have begun in earnest to exhibit lust for this growing sexy wireless gorilla... the expectation is widening that QCOM will become a tech giant in wireless, thus joining INTC, CSCO, and MSFT (pre-breakup)... its reward next year is likely to be a marketcap approaching $200B, thus deserving status to sit among its brethren tech giants
the TG correction for theQ was mild, consisting of very roughly 3/8 correction down to 335 area... this was fine and healthy and normal... I expected no more than 3/8 retraced since the story is intact... what powered the strong move was the announced 4:1 split... I believe the November rally was a first stage Elliott Wave... EW governs stock price movement in unbridled breakout modes, where zero history aids in governing price movement
(we saw a textbook EW in April following the Ericsson capitulation deal: three legs up, the second the biggest, correction after the first leg, bigger correction after the second -- CHECK THE CHART FOR YOURSELF)
now enter the next stage... the realization of the split is now upon us, with its final impact on the stock price... the long-awaited handset division sale soon should be made public, complete with its many details (buyer identity, price, CDMA chipsets contracted annually, royalty therein, etc)... China now is in the process of making commitments to set up shop for CDMA... HDR is being demonstrated, thus enabling some materialization of future revenue forecasts... Christmas sales are huge for handsets across the spectrum... the Y2K information systems buildout is almost totally complete, with staggering productivity implications... the Y2K tech-led stock market rally has set the stage for the next strong run
this current stage has all the psychological earmarks of a second stage Elliott Wave, which requires total public confirmation and buyin of the emerging story... it requires buyer to beget buyer... the lower share price post-split will enable a much wider public participation... the result might be just that confirmation
second stage Elliott Wave uplegs are huge... the first leg was 175 points from 225... the next I believe will be of a magnitude exceeding 200 points... textbook EW says the second leg is 50-60% larger than the first, i.e. 260 pts
I am not saying for sure we got it, but.......
I believe this second leg will be huge, with QCOM rising thru the Jan and Feb 2000 months, and possibly into March, up to the mid-600 level
but beware of the correction from any second Elliott Wave... corrections after second uplegs are huge also, as much as 5/8 retracements... typically two support levels are retraced, and they are substantial
(the correction after second EW upleg in April was from 188 to 125 -- CHECK THE CHART YOURSELF)
target by March: 650
I am out on a limb here, so take it as tenuous
dont be labeling me a kook
I think this is attainable, given the psychology and acceptance of CDMA
more on this remarkable Elliott Wave as time plays out
/ Jim Willie |
