EXDS Revenues....1997-2000
Mike:
Want to thank you so much for
taking the time to help all of
us who are numerically challenged.
I tried to do a little table to
better demonstrate revenue growth
for Exodus Communications; it lists
documented quarterly revenues, and
the quarterly sequential growth (SG).
I also estimated quarterly and annual revenues
into FY 2000. I used the average quarterly SG
of the first 3 qtrs in 1999 to get the 4th qtr
SG rate of 47.6%, and applied that to get the
4th qtr 1999 revenue estimate of $99.8 million.
To get the estimates for FY 2000, I took a very conservative
quarterly SG of 40%. I fully expect
EXDS to beat this in FY 2000, based both on the SG
from the past 3 years, and on the accelerating tornado
of website hosting now and in the near-term future.
Revenues are in $Millions; 'e' represents estimated.
1997 1998 1999 2000e
1Qrev: 1.7 7.1 30.1 147.3
1QSG: 54.5% 44.9% 42.6%
2Qrev: 2.4 10.1 42.5 217.4
2QSG 41.2% 42.2% 41.2%
3Qrev: 3.4 14.5 67.6 320.8
3QSG: 41.7% 43.6% 59.0%
4Qrev: 4.9 21.1 99.8e 473.6
4QSG: 44.1% 45.5% 47.6%e
Ave. Qtr SG: 45.4% 44% 47.6%e 40%e
Annual Rev: 12.4 52.7 240e 1,159.1e
Annual SG: 425% 455% 483%
The FY 2000 revenue estimate by David Levy from
H & Q of ~ $630 million looks to be way low, and
would require the annual SG to decline to 262%,
rather than the estimate of 483%, using the
conservative quarterly SG rate of 40%. If the
P/S ratio acknowledged by a slew of analysts
should be about 25 or so, and if Exodus simply performs as expected
and achieves the 12/2000 revs of $1.159 billion,
then I calculate an expected share price of ~ $340.
However, my honest expectations is that Exodus will
exceed a 40% SG rate per quarter, because of my
gut instinct that we are in the middle of a massive
Ecommerce-website growth tornado; and because of the
track record demonstrated above for the past 3 years.
In the meantime, SSB has upgraded EXDS this morning
to a price of $215/share, and I think a 2 for 1 split
takes place after market close today. This morning, EXDS opened
at $175. At the beginning of the month, it was ~ $107.
Apollo |
