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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
ORCL 219.33+0.8%2:53 PM EST
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To: John Wright who wrote (12711)12/14/1999 1:27:00 PM
From: Richard Habib  Read Replies (3) of 19080
 
Kind of curious why no one feels ORCL will sell off quite some tomorrow. Selling near an all time high PE, it would need to show very solid growth to justify these numbers. Last qtr 13% growth is a little light for a company selling at 80+ PE. I would think the only way the stock price could be maintained would be a blow out qtr. Any other results will likely result in a sell off I would think. In any case I've bought a fair number of Jan puts so we will see.

Remember, last qtr Europe sales had still to reorg. The sales reorg in the U.S. was blamed for the lack of conversion last qtr. In addition I understand from folks in the business that many companies did lock down purchases in database and ERP for Y2K. While .coms may not have, ORCL last qtr already reported they had 100% of the top 20 .coms. LE stated that yoy would be difficult for that reason yet I would think seq comparisons will also be difficult. Further, we know that many customers delay purchases of ERP & DB until ORCL Q4 so they can negotiate the huge discounts - 90%+ that we've heard about. I guess we will see but it would seem to me that from a probability point of view, smart money would be short for the announcement. Rich
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