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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 174.23-0.6%3:59 PM EST
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To: The Verve who wrote (53987)12/14/1999 3:07:00 PM
From: engineer  Read Replies (1) of 152472
 
There are two factors out there for phone buildout. Infrastructure and phones. On infrastructure, as the demand grows the number of basestations increase. Since the bandwidth does not increase that much, then the use of smaller and smaller microcells will grow. I do not see that type of buildout slowing down for many years to come. I see 6 sectored cells being the normal, microcells on street light poles becoming standard, and HDR distribution widespread if HDR is the choice.

On phones, we have changed from an industry which buys a phone for 10 years and uses it until it breaks. We will see it change to a consumer driven industry where you change out your phone every 2 years (or down to every year??) just to get more network and data functions, much the same consumer model as the PC industry has now. From that point, I think the subscriber numbers actually need to be broken down into the two components. You want the total number of subscribers out there and then you want the total handsets sold. they are NOT equal what so ever today. I see this component growing for a long time. Suppose that it is a given that the infrastructure gets built out until only 2003. It would take another 10 years for the new tehcnology to build out over the top such that there would be no CDMA (although I would bet a beer that it would be similar CDMA based and have some QC IPR in it..). In that 10 years, you might replace the handsets of the consumers twice (assuming that a percentage of them change to the new technology in the later years). At that point this would be like 100M units year. Still BIG $$'s in any event.
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