Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Steve168 who wrote (18499)	12/14/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: Bob Trocchi	of 18691

Steve168... >>Anyone else long or short? << I am short and at present underwater. I feel it is a dangerous short unless you have some good margin. Short term I cannot predict the direction of ZIXI. It could go to 100 or 30 with equal ease and IMO, do it in a heartbeat. I am short because there is nothing that I can see in their reputed products that are unique. I say reputed since ZIXMAIL is in BETA and ZIXCHARGE has not been released to beta test to the best of my knowledge. Their niche (security) is crowded as it is and has some very big names. This means tough competition and that means ZIXMAIL will need deep pockets to compete. Their business model for Zixmail of $1.00/mo per user will require millions of users and I doubt that many people will "trust" their e-mail security to a company with 15 employees and who has outsourced their development work. Who knows who will do the support, maintenance and improvements in the future. The business model for their Zixcharge product to the best of my knowledge has not been released. On the other hand, this stock has a cult like following and even the slightest news bounces the stock up very rapidly. It surely has the feel of a Pump and Dump and I originally felt that it would be short lived. I do not believe that now and I expect that it could take a year or so. Given the rapid price swings and IMO the long term prognosis of a stock that could easily end up in the single digits, I will remain short and remain very patient. If it does somehow reach $100 I expect to add to my short position. Be careful, long or short. Bob T.

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