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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2316)	12/14/1999 9:51:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Henry, <<I'm not trying to make specific currency recommendations. Just trying to discuss background economic issues and see what people are thinking.>> Just testing my reading comprehension. Although I am on the same page re: gov debt, demographics, and private investment your comments made quite clear to me the Yen currency situation (or so I hoped). Curiosity caused me to extend the thinking to the big three currencies. Regarding the US, I agree that the trade balance is not that big of an issue, and one must consider all flows. However, I also view the US through rose colored glasses. As the Yen adjusts what pressures will that cause? For example, were you to model 200 Yen, 250 Yen, etc, how does the system respond? To what extent does Japanese consumption increase? Do exports grow more quickly than imports? Given the current stock of capital and labor what is Japan's long-term growth rate? Regards, Lee

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