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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 116.89

-0.5%

10:38 AM EST

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To: Sig who wrote (149276)	12/15/1999 9:16:00 AM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (2) of 176387

sig - IDC has revised projections for overall industry growth down in 2000, as has Gartner - it may be as low as 15%. DELL grew at about twice the industry average last year - if they do that again, they will be in the low 30% range rather than the 40s. That is why I am suggesting that they need to expand their market range to maintain their target growth range. DELL has good presence in small business and I agree that there is some pent-up demand there. But the whole of that market is not enough to offset the decline in the projections for the commercial desktop space. DELL clearly has room to grow their laptop offerings, and their recent expansion of the laptop line is a step in that direction. While I agree with all of the potential market segments you identify, I don't see why DELL has any particular advantage in capturing that market, in fact they have a distinct disadvantage relative to their competition. Let's look at the e-business space. You say Incredible demand for servers and storage when large Web sellers find how much Christmas trade they missed because of being unable to handle the traffic/customers. True - but where is the infrastructure play which would propel DELL into that space? IBM has created a comprehensive e-business framework called WebSphere which consists of integrated hardware, software and services offerings which create an end-to-end solution. SUN also has an offering like this, the iPlanet initiative, although it is not quite as complete as IBM's because of SUN's weaker services. HP has eSpeak, a similar offering. Each of these architectures plays on the current trend to high end UNIX and EJB as the framework components. How does DELL get a toehold? re: And Dell services will have to grow as fast as the company or 40%? How does DELL take advantage of that trend when they have decided not to build a services capability and instead will use IBM? That just opens the door to the "trojan horse"... Don't get me wrong, I have consistently said that DELL will execute well and continue to grow their share in their core business (commercial desktops) and in the low end of the server business. They will need to do that to achieve a 30% growth rate... what specific programs can you point to that will boost them above that level?

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