Thanks for the links, Tuck. Unfortunately, I am not qualified to assess all the technical information to determine who has what or even more important, who is ahead. I was attracted, as you were, to the potential benefits of designed small molecules. I took NEOT's word for it that they were far ahead of everyone else in the field and did not research it. Even more than a year later, it still seems that they were right in that assessment. I never heard of Cerebrolysin or Ebewe, but that doesn't mean much.
It turns out that you need more than just discovering or designing a drug that works. There is everything involved from, raising money to continue the development without giving away the store (the biggie), to maintaining control of the program (the next biggie), to maintaining relations with the academic community, the FDA, competing biotech companies, alternate treatment strategies, employees, testers, the investment community, the press, stockholders and on and on and ON. (You would enjoy a book called "The Billion Dollar Molecule" by Barry Werth, who described what goes on in this phase by writing about Vertex roughly during this period.)
What's up with the Street's ignorance/undervaluation of NEOT and is it them or me that is wrong is a question that I ask myself in some form every day. Personally, I think it is the investment of a lifetime... one that goes up 10 or 20 times and you can make a fortune on it. It happens all the time and this one certainly has all the elements. It just takes a long time and they play down what they have. PR is not their long suit and while you have to take the wheat with the chaff (or the other way around) I'd rather they were weak there than in their science. This is even though I think it hurts them from time to time and the stock could be a lot higher right now based on what is out already. It would help them out in the continuing financing requirement. Then again, they raised something like 50 million, without a dime in sales so they can't be that bad in that department.
Why not take a small position now and add to it as more confirmations come in? I've got a wad on it because I read all kinds of good things into each development ... but again, that could be a weakness of mine.
Cheers. |
