Banchee, I doubt it is even close. I really believe we will see this same sort of mixed day on increasingly lower volume as the month rolls on. . .the Dow Nas and S&P could all be higher. . . but JDSU, QCOM, ETEK, RHAT, ADAP, CIEN, VERT, CNQR, LDIG, etc. could all come in lower.
Remember the key words. . . . WASH & RINSE.
Now. . .another thing I am seeing is some sector rotation WITHIN the high techs. . . .MOT has seen two strong days in a row. . .after mostly being ignored. . . .IBM, MSFT, INTC, DELL and ORCL all made similar moves and still look strong. . . LQID got a bit of attention today, but it was on news. . .
When you think about it. . . it isn't a bad idea. . . jump out of JDSU and into MOT during the tech sell-off. . . not bad at all.
So it appears my prediction of a December sell-off was simply early. . .so we jumped out near the top. . .held our gains and now are looking for bargains. . . all in all, that worked out pretty well. . .
Swing trades aren't looking as good today. . .may hold off until later this month. . .when the volatility returns.
Again, it is the quality companies that are ALWAYS first to come back. . . my guess is that we will continue to sell off. . .but each day. . .these same quality names will be the first to rebound. And the up and down motion will get more and more wild as the days roll on. . . 100 point swings either direction will be common.
And don't forget. . .if MSFT and INTC make strong gains, the rest of the market could be down sharply, but the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P and now even the Dow will all show gains, because these two companies are now part of all three. . . .which is pretty silly when you think about it.
So we must be keen and to use other indicators. . .or to always check the Dow/Nas against MSFT/INTC . . . sometimes you can overlay their intradays perfectly. [MSFT currently on a tear.. .probably same bogus rumor as yesterday.]
So once again, we look for the great companies that get sold off on news for our sure thing gains. . . and believe me. . .we will soon here where JDSU or QCOM are downgraded for this reason or for that. . .it doesn't really matter. . .because it is all about manipulation anyway. Meanwhile, MOT is still an undervalued play. . .even where it is selling now. . . so the flight to tech quality is smart.
Rande Is |
