G'day Mr Fun & all, long time no talk [you and I crossed path on the NT thread awhile back,] maybe a description of my motivation is in order here. I am seeking informed opinion about investing in LU [even though I am long in NT,] and I ve no intention to start a intercorporate flamewar <G>.
LU is the cheapest of the big three, and from the valuation perspective, I am inclined to start a small stake in it. However, with today news of NT buying Qtera, and with the implicit knowledge that Corvis is deep in CSCO's pocket, I am wondering how LU might respond. The 3rd known company [supposingly] with comparable product is CIEN. Unless LU is working similar product inhouse, it may be possible that LU is interested in CIEN. Maybe that is the reason CIEN skyrocketed recently - or maybe not, since I don't follow CIEN that much. Here lies the problems. 1) CIEN is becoming very expensive and 2) one has to wonder if CIEN still remember what LU did to the former by *preannouncing* the 80 channels DWDM product.
Now, here is my investing dilemma. Assuming neither 1) nor 2) is a problem, and assuming CIEN is the last alternative [to Corvis and Qtera,] and assuming LU indeed needs to keep up with the joneses, such an offer would cause some major hedging between LU and CIEN stocks. Does anyone see a different way? TIA
[note: this is hypothetical, and I ve no intention to spread any rumor]
best, Bosco |
