David, To me, with or without license CDRD remains a speculative play. It will generate no revenues until the second half of 1999 at the earliest. The company will need substantial capital to build up the infrastructure. When revenues begin to come in, it's still highly uncertain how much revenues/income this company can generate. I can see digital TV to be popular, in fact it's mandatory by the year 2006, but I'm not so sure about digital radio. Because CDRD's concept is targeted at the "frequent drivers" (and people in remote area to some extent), it's yet to be seen how many are willing to spend $150 for a special chip to be installed in their digital radio, and pay a monthly fee to listen to CD quality music. Seems to me, a CD player will be much better. As far as other programming like news and sports, aren't they already available from free radio? (The paid radio programming from CDRD is not completely commercial free). Well, I'm very skeptical of CDRD's future. The road to 2000 is full of obstacles, hitting any one of them can easily tank CDRD stock to low single digit. Just MHO.
Regards,
Tom |
