Bobby, looks that way...now CMGI is splitting, so to-morrow we'll have another party, as unlikely as that seems...
i'm already salivating at the prospect of a once-in-a-lifetime shorting opp. when this incredibly durable mania caves in...
note that the Fed has expanded the money supply at the fastest rate EVER over the past few weeks. imagine what will happen if they stop to print even for a moment...in other words, they have now entered a vicious cycle. they can't stop, because it would collapse the bubble immediately. and if they keep on printing at current rates, they invite ultimately a total systemic collapse, as the current account deficit which stands at it's highest ever both in relative and absolute terms goes completely off the charts...
it's a no-win situation...trapped by the bubble, for better or worse.
admittedly it will be hard to time this, but Y2K is actually a good point of orientation. if nothing happens, the flight capital will rush out of the dollar, and in view of the correlation of the buck with the stock market that would produce predictable results.
that isn't even considering the possibility that the Fed may actually withdraw some of the excess liquidity (how can they?).
if Y2K otoh turns out to be worse than expected, well, how can you top M3 growth of 30 billion dollars per week?
so as we near that turning point, we may actually close in on that shorting opp....
the rationalizations accompanying this mania get ever more ludicrous...price targets are raised based on 2001 estimates, in the case of e-bay i recently heard an analyst mutter about his 2009 estimates...well, estimates even a year out are nothing but guessing games. how one could possibly base investment decisions on that remains a mystery.
anyway, it's a great show! we'll all have tales to tell our grand children.
hb |
