Great attitude, Spirit. A few things to keep in mind this month. . .
I think that the rest of December will be mixed. . . some stocks will continue to rise, while others will continue to sell. . . here is why. . .
What I saw today was the beginning of the "day-after-Thanksgiving" effect. As some of the biggest investors cashed out for the holidays, suddenly stocks like RHAT, ORCL and JDSU literally took off. That is leading me to believe that the reason is speculation.
Think about this. . .the cause of the day-after-Thanksgiving effect is that as the large size investors walk away. . . the individual investors become more important to the moves of the stocks they like to play. And they certainly like playing CMGI, RHAT and others. . . .so I expect the speculators favorites to continue to soar straight on through the end of the year. . . .while the less favored issues selloff at the same time. [Incidently, CMGI is going to rip for the next week on blowout earnings, 2-for-1 split again and holiday volatility.]
Now expand this sort of thinking beyond just speculative stocks. . .and you get a hodge podge of tax loss selling, profit taking, new buying on dips, fund managers selecting stocks for 2000, Christmas money going in, money to pay bills and taxes coming out, speculators doing both and the Wall Street Fat Cats watching from the sidelines.
So here we are in mid-December and my prediction for the rest of the month is a little bit of everything. . . .forget sectors. . .one stock in a sector will rise 8%, while a similar one falls 8% the same day.
Wash and rinse will be the order of the day. . . .and rotation in and out of tech stocks. . . the Nas and Dow will hardly matter. . . and by the end of December, we will ask "did we rise or fall?"
And the answer will be, "we did both simultaneously."
Rande Is |
