In an interview filled with surprises, wireless Guru Andrew Seybold lays out the following predictions: Nortel Networks will have a big announcement in the New Year; IBM could be looking to buy the Qualcomm's handset division; Research in Motion, Infowave Software and Wi-Lan could be acquired by bigger players; 3com will come on strong, especially with the Nokia/3com partnership; Microsoft is acting as a real catalyst for wireless development; and Sprint stands to lose ground to a powerful merged Vodafone-Bell Atlantic, on which Seybold is hugely bullish. Also, Motorola's VoxML and a consortium developed Bluetooth technology will lead the development of Internet voice communication.
Andrew Seybold is a Senior Partner with the California-based Andrew Seybold Group and is widely considered the foremost authority on mobility and wireless technology. As the Editor-in-Chief of "Outlook on Communications and Computing", Mr. Seybold has written extensively on the wireless sector and is a regular contributor to several leading publications. Often quoted in the Wall Street Journal for his unique insider's perspective on the industry, Seybold is recognized as an authoritative source of wireless information and is a regular consultant to many leading wireless companies. In a wide-ranging StockHouse interview, Seybold lets us in on what to expect and what to watch in one of the fastest growing and ever-changing sectors: wireless communication. This feature article serves as an outline for future in-depth stories, which will appear on the pages of StockHouse over the coming months.
Vancouver, BC, December 16 /SHfn/ -- When Andrew Seybold makes predictions in the wireless world, analysts, fund managers and industry veterans alike tend to take notice. For that reason, when Seybold mentioned in passing, "I don't want to begin to say that this is the year of wireless data, because I don't think there is a year of wireless data. But, I think that 2000 is going to be a very good year for this," one cannot understate the importance of that comment. Seybold is a firm believer in fundamentals, profit, valuations and shareholder responsibility, a few key points that seem so easily lost on the .com investing mentality of late. Seybold goes on to share with us his views on the year ahead; his tier one picks, emerging juniors, growth areas in the industry, changes that need to take place for greater market acceptance, up and comers, long-term investing picks, potential acquisition targets as well as a few interesting major developments that should unfold in the New Year.
"I think the growth opportunities are in alliances that put together end-to-end solutions for end-users."
For market makers, Seybold looks to blue chip companies like Ericsson [ERICY], Nokia [NOK] and Motorola [MOT] as those who have consistently shaped the industry and will continue to lead as we move into new areas of wireless technology. These companies will change the face of wireless as it currently exists while traditional software titan Microsoft [MSFT] makes motions to place itself among the list of industry elite. He sees Microsoft serving as a real catalyst in the wireless industry that has forced the telecom industry to start paying closer attention to the computing industry. Seybold points to recent Microsoft alliances such as WirelessKnowledge, (http://wirelessknowledge.com/) which was borne out of their Qualcomm [QCOM] partnership and the more recent collaboration with Ericsson. Seybold points to alliances as key indicators of future growth and success, "I think the growth opportunities are in alliances that put together end-to-end solutions for end-users," such as has been seen with all the majors culminating in a flurry of deals.
What are often referred to as tier two juniors, who are signing deals and trying to break into the majors, are a few newsworthy mentions. Those that hit the Seybold radar screen include such notable members as Infowave [T.IW], Research in Motion [T.RIM] and SmartServ [SSOL] as well as relative newcomer Aether Systems [AETH] who after roaring to a high of over $89, has since settled back down in the mid-$50 range. Seybold speaks to great detail of the viable potential of these emerging leaders, soon to be the focus of a future StockHouse feature story highlighting these rising stars.
"This deal keeps Sprint up at night. "
For growth in the industry, Seybold is hugely bullish on the Vodafone [VOD] / Bell Atlantic [BEL] deal. As he says, "This deal keeps Sprint [FON] up at night," as the alliance will form a network upwards of 20 million customers, more than doubling the current AT&T [T] numbers. One of the areas of perhaps greatest growth, according to Seybold, is that of voice services. He sees a boom in companies that offer voice access to Internet information on a grand scale. Motorola, as an example, has a technology called VoxML (Voice Markup Language) which is pushing to become the new language for the Internet. A consortium made up of such luminaries as Ericsson, IBM [IBM], Intel [INTC], Nokia and Toshiba as the founding members developed a technology back in 1998 that has come to be known as Bluetooth. The alliance has since been bolstered with the addition of 3Com [COMS], Lucent [LU], Microsoft and Motorola. It is widely expected that Bluetooth will lead the transformation and emerge as the authority for Internet voice communication.
As the wireless networks settle out, Seybold sees 4 nation-wide wireless networks emerging as the leaders in the sector; AT&T, MCI Sprint, Vodafone/Bell Atlantic and Nextel [NXTL]. He predicts that BellSouth [BLS], following a failed Sprint acquisition attempt, will either need to do some more acquiring of their own or they will end up being acquired themselves.
"3Com is a sleeper in the telecommunications business."
Certain alliances that Seybold likes include Nokia/IBM and Nokia/3Com. He remains extremely bullish on the Nokia/3Com partnership and comments, "3Com is a sleeper in the telecommunications business."
As to possible acquisition targets, Seybold sees Infowave RIM and Wi-LAN [T.WIN] as holders of technology that any of the larger tier players would be more than interested to bring in house.
Several private concerns have made a splash, which Seybold likes, and include instant messenger Roku, online comparative shopper iqorder.com, as well as fusionOne, a software that lets you store all your files outside of your desktop, and becomes accessible anywhere you go. GoAmerica Communications, who bill themselves as your total resource for wireless communications round out Seybold's top private picks.
Seybold, not one to close on light news, issues his "significant deals to watch out for" list as we wrap up this first introductory story. He sees that with the Qualcomm handset division for sale, someone like IBM could be eyeing that target as an entr‚e into the phone business. "I think the Qualcomm phone division is a new competitor waiting to happen," says Seybold of an emerging play that will definitely be one to watch. Finally, in a cryptic sort of way, he advises we all take a close look at Nortel [NT] for an interesting announcement in the New Year.
Here comes to a close the initial installment of the Seybold Interview. Please watch for future updates on StockHouse as we delve in detail into all his picks and predictions coming out of the wild world of wireless. |
