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Strategies & Market Trends : The Player's Club
SPY 683.47+0.6%Nov 28 4:00 PM EST
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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (2810)12/15/1999 10:32:00 PM
From: bearshark  Read Replies (2) of 11513
 
GZ: I saw the notes on the ARMs between John and you. I keep a 20-day moving average along with other versions of the ARMs data. For the 20-day ARMs, I have 11 straight days below 4. That is extraordinary so I did a quick check back to 1996 and never saw anything close. I could go back to the 50s with it but I don't think it is necessary.

I think this has been exacerbated by individuals selling decently valued stocks that are not hot and moving into hot stocks--either through funds or their own purchases. This resulted in the bad advance/decline numbers in issues and, in the beginning, good advancing and declining volume as funds were pouring into the advancing issues.

However, since the end of November the advancing and declining volume has been trending towards the lousy action of the advancing and declining issues. So I now have bad numbers for the issues and the volume numbers are bad and moving down to join the issues. We should be seeing declining averages already.

Under these conditions, I could imagine the right misstep resulting in a quick market calamity. Perhaps something like a major internet presence reporting a loss instead of a humble profit. The conditions are present, we just need a catalyst.
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