ISIP a value?
Anybody on this thread thinks that Isis is a value at 5$
and change ? I hope not! The Isis disaster is personally
interesting for me, because ISIP was together with Ligand
one of the first biotech stocks I began to watch here in SI.
I am glad I did not invest in both companies!
Both are very good examples what can go wrong with biotech
investing. In the case of ISIP,it was quite
interesting to see how investors reacted when Boehringer
Mannheim pulled out of 2302 .. hurray, now its all ours!
A few month later, Novartis pulled out of ISIS3521 and ISIS
5132. This was clearly a crucial event,because as Joe
Average investor,I have to assume that the Big guys have
looked at the available data at this point and decided to
pull out. One may explain this away in the early stage,lets
say Phase I or early Phase II, but in late Phase II or Phase
III,this most clearly mean, that the data does not look
great - and if they do not believe it why should I, as an
average investor with much less knowledge.
I am also aware,that in some cases, big pharma has pulled
out of drug projects, which were successful later,i believe
Aghourons Viracept was one of them; but in the end investing
in biotech is making a bet, and one should not make a bet,
when the odds are against winning.
Regarding ISIP,I think that if it should manage to creep up
to 8$, it would be a reasonable short, but I think its much
more likely to hit 3$ before...
I have been through disasters myself (with Glia) but it
seems,that sometimes,the writing is on the wall, but nobody wants to read it. |
