ISIP and LGND
ISIP is probably not a good short at 5$, but if it would
go back to 8$, it would be a worthwhile idea to short,IMHO.
The financial situation is bleak and the odds for the follow
up products do not look great. If Novartis clinical team did
not like them, why should I?
This does not mean that these products cannot be a success,
but the odds ar not good, IMHO.
The 'platform idea' initially intrigued me about
both LGND and ISIP. But now I think, that the platform
concept is overrated. Even the best 'platform' only helps
with the discovery process,but 90% of the cost is in
clinical development. For this reason,the knowledge of the
clinical development team is probably even more important
then the drug discovery itself. A good clicnical team
should be able to weed out the bad candidates earlier and
subsequently save resources.
I do not know, if Antisense is a good platform or not;
it may have been a bad target, but for ISIP,this will not
matter;if they make another mistake, they will run out of
money.
As far as LGND is concerned, I did not invest,because i did
not like the high burn rate and the dilution. LGND has now
three approved drugs, Panretin, Targetin and Ontak, but they
are for a very small indications, namely Karposis Sarcoma
and CTCL.
The Seragen acquisition was initiated to acquire Ontak,
and I pointed out then,that this was a waste of money and
resources,since Ontak works only for a small population
subset of CTCL and I believe,its more toxic than Panretin,so
its an inferior drug. So why did they acquire an inferior
drug for the same indication, for which they developed an better drug for?
Still, the approval of Targetin for CTCL is certainly a
plus; but anybody who believes, that off label sales for
breast cancer will automatically kick in without strong
clinical data and a marketing partner with a lot of
firepower may as well believe in Santa Claus.
However,I still believe,that at 9$ (or below) LGND is a
worthwhile investment. Targetin still may evolve as a drug
with a significant market in bigger indication.
I would rather own LGND at 9.5$ then ISIP at 5 1/2 right
now.
Biotech is a minefield,and as an investor,its almost
impossible, not to step on a mine from time to time.
I hit mine with Glia recently, which was hit by and FDA
imposed import ban for their only product.
The people running the VD portfolio hit a landmine from
time to time too, but they also hit enough home runs to
make up for them.they understand biotech science much better
then I do and thats why I listen to them, by watching this
thread (and some others).
And I remember, that this thread discussed ISIP as well, and
the outcome was not favorable. Again,if biotech savvy people
do not like an investment, why should I? |
