Richard,
Top 5, if I'm reading correctly-
16 wins and 9 losses average of 2.5 signals per year
4 wins and 0 losses average of 1 signal almost every three years
8 wins and 1 loss average of almost 1 signal per year
5 wins and 2 losses average almost 1 signal every 16 months
26 wins and 39 losses average of 6.5 signals every year
Out of all the systems, numbers 1 and 5 are the most realistic in terms of why people get into TA. I doubt very much someone would get into TA to get less than 1 signal per year.
The problem I see with the 2 systems numbers 1 and 5 is if people would stick with a system for TEN years that has that many losses.
Do you really think one could have the emotional fortitude to use a mechanical system and then have the emotional fortitude to endure consecutive losses over a ten year period?
How can we expect this out of anyone? Maybe I am the only one that can't understand this. Why must it be that difficult?
Let's see if I can break it down this way. When we go long, we are expecting an uptrend or we would not be getting in, correct?
If we find the stocks that are already participating in an uptrend say, MSFT, KO, MO, PG, G, MRK, WLA etc., all we have to do is learn to find a spot to latch on. Often, that spot can also serve as a stop if things go wrong.
All the systems you post are flashing signals that are either in an uptrend or expecting an uptrend. Longs do not make money unless they go up, all we need is an uptrend.
The uptrend that we find will either continue or not. If it does, our time frame will dictate how much of it we want to participate in or not. If you are of short term, you do not want to miss the cycle.
No, I'm not rich but it's that simple. I think we complicate our lives by looking for perfection that does not exist. The variables will never be solved by a computer or our minds but if we can just understand the basic need a long uses to make a profit, we can maybe work with the computer and make ends meet.
How can this be unreasonable compared to your way?
Regards,
Jerry |
